Question by : Math individuals – I have a “story difficulty” – can you support me figure it out? 10 pts!!!?
Hi Math folks. I wish I was better with numbers, but Im certain not, so I thank you for clicking right here and assisting me. Now like I stated, this is a bit of a story dilemma. For the purposes of this query only, can you just presume that the data Im providing is accurate, and treat it as this kind of. I imply, the quantity may not be exactly 20%, but lets say that it is, just so I can get an idea of how this operates – thank you!!
Okay, this is about the probability of conceiving a youngster (but technically, it could be about something else, and Im confident the math behind it is even now the exact same – and that is where you come in) Right here it is: Its mentioned that each time a couple engages in unprotected sex, throughout ovulation (about 2 days), there is a twenty% opportunity of conception (if you are youthful, that indicates ‘to get pregnant” FYI). Since Im TERRIBLE with math, I want to ask someone like you guys for help in understanding this then. If a couple has sex just the 1 time, during these 2 days, they have a twenty% chance of turning out to be pregnant. What about if they have sex twice? I presume the number does not literally double, that means they now have a 40% chance, correct? I say that bc, at some point, if a couple has sex five instances during ovulation, then they would have a one hundred% likelihood of pregnancy – which is unattainable, I know. So what I do not know is, how does this work then? Sex when equals twenty%, what happens right after that? Sex twice means…??? Does it keep at twenty%, does it increase, and by how a lot?
I also believed of this – each and every time a woman gets pregnant, theres a 50% likelihood the baby will be a boy and 50% chance it will be a girl (a coin toss, if you will) – theres no way to modify the odds. It does not matter if this is a couples TENTH infant, and all the infants so far have been girls, they even now have just a 50% probability of getting an additional woman, no a lot more, no less. 50%, every single pregnancy, no exceptions. That a lot I realize, but that’s not the very same thing as the twenty% rule, appropriate? It cant be true that if a couple has sex the moment, or a hundred instances, throughout ovulation that their chance remains at 20%, right? And, like I said just before, theres no way that it could retain creeping up right up until it reaches a hundred% either (theres no way to assure a a hundred% likelihood of pregnancy, not even if you did it for two days straight with out a break – haha!). So if you can, please support me make sense of this in my own mind. Id really like to know how it operates, mathematically, but Im definitely not the 1 to be able to figure it out on my personal. And lastly, if you happen to be uncomfortable with the subject, feel free of charge to change it to anything else you pick, just maintain the 20% rule in tact, assuming its an absolute truth, for the purposes of this question. Thanks so a lot!!! Im actually thrilled to see how somebody answers this – I genuinely want to know!! Thanks!!!
Finest solution:
Answer by M3
effectively, what you do is to instead calculate the probability of NOT conceiving,
and you don’t ADD the probabilities, you multiply them
for instance, twice means P[not conceive] = .8*.eight = .64,
so P[DO conceive] = 1 .64 = .36 or 36%
similarly, thrice means P[conceive] = 1 – .8*.eight*.eight = .488 or 48.8%
edit:
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i’d like to allay any fears mathman tg might have raised re dying from overexertion in an try to raise the probability to a figure close to one hundred%
because probability has no memory, the attempts could be spread more than months, with the exact same end result, ie 30 “killing” attempts in 1 month (during the 2 day ovulation period, thoughts it) or 10 months would the two yield a probability of 1 – .8^30 = .9987 or 99.88%, taking for granted the extremely dubious assumption of a continuous twenty% probability for each try.
Know better? Leave your own solution in the comments!
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